Global collaboration for innovation and technology is facing critical challenges as geopolitical tensions rise, warns the World Economic Forum (WEF) in its second annual Global Cooperation Barometer. The report highlights that while international cooperation has surged in recent decades, it now risks fragmenting, particularly in frontier technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors.

At the upcoming WEF Annual Meeting in Davos, leaders will discuss how to manage these risks and foster continued cooperation on pressing global challenges, such as pandemics and climate change. However, the WEF also acknowledges that competition for global influence is escalating, making cooperation more difficult to achieve.

Børge Brende, WEF’s president, emphasized that the post-Cold War era of increased cooperation has ended, with nations now navigating a complex and fragmented world order. As countries jockey for power, collaboration in areas like innovation and technology becomes increasingly strained. For example, the recent U.S. decision to limit exports of advanced AI chips has sparked concerns about global fragmentation in the tech sector.

Despite these challenges, efforts to collaborate with trusted partners continue. The European Union, for instance, has strengthened ties with nations such as Canada, South Korea, and Switzerland, joining forces in Horizon Europe, a €95 billion research program. This move is seen as a strategic effort to maintain cross-border collaboration on cutting-edge technologies.

Yet, there are warning signs. The WEF report highlights a decline in cross-border patents, reduced international research and development (R&D) activity, and a growing emphasis on national funding for AI projects. These trends suggest that global cooperation in technology might face a slowdown, which could impact productivity growth.

Bob Sternfels of McKinsey & Company, a contributor to the report, noted the worrying signs of fragmentation, particularly in sectors like AI, where national funding is becoming more prevalent. Sternfels cautioned that this shift could signal a future slowdown in the global exchange of innovation and technology.

The barometer measures indicators across five major areas of global cooperation: trade and capital, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security. According to the analysis, while pharmaceutical R&D collaboration remains steady above pre-pandemic levels, overall global trade has declined. However, foreign direct investment has risen, with investments now increasingly concentrated in a handful of developed nations, especially in strategic sectors.

Experts such as Kieron Flanagan from the University of Manchester have cautioned against jumping to conclusions too quickly. He pointed out that the data used in the report is limited and may not fully reflect the long-term trends, particularly since it covers the period immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic and amid the disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

While the WEF sees international cooperation as crucial for global economic progress, it acknowledges the growing tension between promoting tech sovereignty and fostering global collaboration. As countries pursue more control over emerging technologies, particularly those related to AI and defense, they must balance national interests with the need for open innovation. The push for technological sovereignty in regions like Europe, aimed at enhancing resilience and economic strength, may create challenges for global collaboration, leading to increased costs but potentially offering greater security.

Ultimately, the WEF report suggests that while global cooperation in technology remains a key driver of economic growth, the current geopolitical landscape presents significant risks. Policymakers and business leaders must find ways to manage these tensions and continue to work together to address global challenges. If they fail to do so, the world could face a future of fragmented innovation, hindering progress across industries.

As the WEF prepares for its gathering in Davos, the focus will likely be on how to navigate this increasingly complex geopolitical environment and ensure that global cooperation in innovation remains strong, equitable, and sustainable for the future.